Significant infrastructure issues and opportunities for Dunedin

The Government is undertaking a substantial change programme that is expected to impact Dunedin’s infrastructure services in the coming years. This includes reform of 3 waters regulatory and service delivery arrangements, freshwater reforms, review of the resource management system and changes to the way we provide for and manage urban growth. In addition, the Government Policy Statement on land transport, which sets out the Government’s strategic direction for the land transport system over the next 10 years, is issued every three years.

3 Waters regulatory and service delivery reform

The Government’s Inquiry into the Havelock North water supply contamination event of 2016 recommended a suite of changes to improve the safety of drinking water in New Zealand. Three key issues were identified – regulatory weakness, funding and financing challenges, and capability and capacity challenges.

In 2017, the Government established the Three Waters Review. The Review acknowledges multiple challenges facing 3 water services, including funding pressures, ageing infrastructure, rising environmental standards, climate change, seasonal pressure from tourism, and an industry-wide shortage of skilled and qualified people. From the outset, the Government made it clear that it would explore a variety of possible interventions to lift the performance of these services, including changes to both regulatory and service delivery arrangements.

The Government has begun implementing a package of 3 waters regulatory reforms designed to:

• improve national-level leadership, oversight, and support relating to the 3 waters through the creation of Taumata Arowai, the new, dedicated water services regulator
• significantly strengthen compliance monitoring and enforcement relating to drinking water regulation
• manage risks to drinking water safety and ensure sources of drinking water are protected
• improve the environmental performance and transparency of wastewater and stormwater networks.

In July 2020, the Government introduced the Water Services Bill to Parliament. The Bill, if passed, would implement system-wide reforms to the regulation of drinking water and source water, as well as introducing new national-level reporting and monitoring requirements for wastewater and stormwater. Parliament also passed legislation establishing Taumata Arowai as a new Crown entity.

Taumata Arowai is currently being built and will take up its regulatory responsibilities after Parliament passes the Water Services Bill. This is expected to occur in the second half of 2021. From that point, Taumata Arowai will oversee, administer and enforce the regulatory system for drinking water and perform national-level oversight and advisory functions relating to wastewater and stormwater. Regional councils will still regulate wastewater and stormwater discharges to the environment under the Resource Management Act 1991.

Further regulatory reforms may include the introduction of national environmental standards for wastewater discharges and overflows.

In addition to regulatory reforms, the Government has launched a suite of 3 waters service delivery reform proposals. The Government intends to transfer 3 waters service delivery functions from councils to new, public multi-regional water entities. Participation in the service delivery reform programme is voluntary, but the Government has made its preference for full participation by councils clear. In July 2020, the Government provided an indicative timeline for a three stage service delivery reform work programme, with each stage accompanied by a tranche of stimulus funding, and the DCC agreed to ‘opt in’ to the first stage in August 2020. Councils will be asked to make a second decision on participation in late-2021. All councils will be included in one of the new proposed water services entities by default but will have the option to decide not to continue to participate. According to an updated reform timeline published in December 2020, the proposed water services entities would commence operation in about 2023.

Through voluntary participation in stage 1, the DCC received Tranche 1 stimulus funding totalling $15.84 million in November 2020 to be spent by 31 March 2022. The purpose of the funding is to support the Government’s reform objectives, stimulate economic recovery through job creation and increase and/or accelerate investment in 3 waters infrastructure.

Essential Freshwater Programme

The Government has also introduced changes to freshwater regulation through the Essential Freshwater Programme. The Essential Freshwater Programme aims to:

• Stop further degradation of New Zealand’s freshwater
• Start making immediate improvements so water quality improves within five years
• Reverse past damage to bring New Zealand’s waterways and ecosystems to a healthy state within a generation.

There are overlaps between the Essential Freshwater Programme and the Three Waters Review, which relate to the environmental regulation of stormwater and wastewater discharges and protection of drinking water sources.

The National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management 2020 (NPS-FM 2020) came into effect in September 2020. The NPS-FM 2020 requires regional councils to manage freshwater in a way that gives effect to Te Mana o te Wai, a concept that refers to the fundamental importance of water and recognises that protecting the health of freshwater protects the health and well-being of the wider environment and the mauri of the water itself. Regional councils are required to notify new or amended regional plans that give effect to the NPS-FM by 31 December 2024.

The Essential Freshwater Programme has also included introduction of new National Environmental Standards for Freshwater and amendments to existing regulations for the measurement and reporting of water takes. Further regulatory changes proposed include amendments to the NES for Sources of Human Drinking Water, which would strengthen the ability of regional councils and territorial authorities to manage risks to drinking water posed by activities in drinking water catchments.

Overall, the changes made through the Essential Freshwater Programme will have significant flow-on effects for 3 waters activities, through anticipated changes to permitted activities and more stringent requirements around discharges. Changes to engagement requirements are also expected in order to promote active tangata whenua involvement in freshwater management and decision making, and to ensure Māori freshwater values are identified and provided for.

Resource management system review

In 2020, an independent panel appointed by the Minister for the Environment completed a comprehensive review of New Zealand’s resource management system. The review’s scope included looking at the Resource Management Act 1991 and its interfaces with the Local Government Act 2002. The review recommended the current Resource Management Act be replaced with three new pieces of legislation: a Natural and Built Environments Act, a Strategic Planning Act and a Managed Retreat and Climate Change Adaptation Act. The panel’s report is expected to be followed in 2021 by consultation to develop government policy and a framework to link together the key pieces of legislation.

Urban Growth Agenda

The Urban Growth Agenda is a Government work programme that aims to remove barriers to the supply of land and infrastructure and make room for cities to grow up and out. It has five interconnected focus areas: infrastructure funding and financing; urban planning; spatial planning; transport pricing; and legislative reform.

The National Policy Statement on Urban Development 2020 (NPS-UD 2020) came into effect on 20 August 2020. The NPS-UD contributes to the Urban Growth Agenda by addressing constraints in New Zealand’s planning system to ensure it enables growth and supports well-functioning urban environments. The NPS-UD 2020 categorises Dunedin as a tier 2 urban environment, bringing into effect a range of provisions relating to the amount of development capacity required to be serviceable with infrastructure.

Government Policy Statement on Land Transport

The Government Policy Statement on land transport (GPS) sets the Government’s priorities on land transport investment over the next 10-year period. It sets out how money is spent on activities such as public transport, state highway improvements, local roads and road safety. The GPS is reviewed and updated every three years. Changes to priorities in the GPS impact on the DCC’s renewal and capital programmes.

The strategic priorities for GPS 2021 are:

• Safety – developing a transport system where no-one is killed or seriously injured
• Better Travel Options – providing people with better transport options
• Improving freight connections
• Climate Change – developing a low carbon transport system that supports emission reductions.

The Land Transport (Rail) Legislation Act 2020 (the Rail Act) came into force on 1 July 2020. The Rail Act amends the Land Transport Management Act 2003 (the LTMA) and the Land Transport Act 1998 to implement a new long-term planning and funding system for the heavy rail track network owned by KiwiRail.

The new framework brings the planning and funding of the rail network under the land transport planning and funding regime set by the LTMA. This will allow local authorities to have input into how the rail network influences the movement of freight and people in their areas.

Principal Options and Implications of responding to regulatory, legislative and service delivery changes: 3 waters

While a decision whether to transfer the DCC’s 3 waters assets and service delivery functions to a new entity will not be made until late-2021, the DCC 3 Waters Group has initiated a series of projects that will assist with preparation for regulatory, legislative and service delivery changes. These projects focus on organisational impacts, which have potentially large financial implications for the DCC and so all options must be carefully considered. System planning is also key to preparing for reform.

Some projects have already commenced to better understand the capability and capacity of the water, wastewater and stormwater systems to meet current and future anticipated standards. This is complemented by projects to assess the impacts of wastewater and stormwater discharges on the receiving water environments and an assessment of the treatment plants to meet anticipated future treatment standards.

The 2021-31 capital programme does not fund any improvements needed to meet anticipated new regulatory standards in drinking water, wastewater or stormwater as these are not yet confirmed. However the current workplan will assess the ability of the systems to meet a range of new, enhanced standards as well as the baseline investment needed to address more urgent operational risks to maintain current service levels. Longer term strategic investment plans and enhancements needed from system planning will be incorporated into the 10 year plan 2024-34 as the outputs of system planning become available.

Principal options and implications to respond to 3 waters reform

The option that the DCC has decided to take is  labelled (P1).

Section 6.3 (Responding to changes in demand for infrastructure) includes further detail on how the DCC will respond to changes that arise out of the Government’s Urban Growth Agenda.

Section 6.4 (Public health and environmental outcomes) includes further detail on how the DCC will respond to changes arising from 3 waters regulatory reforms and the Essential Freshwater Programme.

Dunedin has $4.1 billion in water supply, wastewater, stormwater and transport assets.

The DCC’s planning is increasingly focused on sound asset condition and risk assessment, planning and delivery opportunities, and long-term asset solutions that provide lasting value for residents, businesses and the environment. Asset management planning is most efficient and effective when all options, including renewals and upgrades, are considered holistically. This can identify opportunities to make more systemic improvements. Systematic improvements can extend network life while maintaining levels of service or in some cases improve levels of service where that would be of value to the community and the environment.

In the next 10 years, DCC has identified opportunities to address some infrastructure issues by investing in a combination of renewals and new capital. Projects such as the Central City Plan and Tertiary Precinct upgrades will replace ageing 3 waters and transport infrastructure and deliver public realm improvements to support a thriving tertiary and retail sector.

3 Waters

The DCC 3 waters assets have a value of $2.4 billion, with assets depreciating by approximately $30.7 million annually. The renewals spend profile within this plan is a significant increase from previous plans due to the ageing asset base and the risk of not meeting stated levels of service. Budget increases year on year will enable a higher rate of renewals as the plan progresses. Annual budgets may be brought forward through the annual plan process if an increased rate of delivery is successful (as described in section 9). In order to deliver an increased programme, 3 waters has set up new delivery models and longer-term programme contracts. The stimulus funding grant received as part of the Government Three Waters Reform Programme has accelerated network renewals in year 1 of the plan. Proposed future grants are an opportunity to uplift the renewals programme further.

Assets do not always need replacing as they reach their theoretical life. Performance or condition can indicate that the asset can continue to run beyond the asset life within acceptable levels of risk (e.g. non-critical assets such as tobies) or alternative approaches to asset management may be adopted. For example, the largest and oldest of Dunedin’s sewer pipes are actively monitored by CCTV to assess when renewal or replacement is needed. This allows 3 waters capital expenditure to be focussed on the renewal of assets not performing as required or unable to meet new standards, based on the criticality of those assets and the likely impact of any loss of service.

Transport

Dunedin’s transport network is made up of a diverse range of assets. They are revalued annually and in 2020 had a total replacement value of $1.7 billion. Assets depreciate by approximately $23.4 million annually. Careful management of these assets is paramount to ensure investment is prioritised where most needed. Emphasis is therefore placed on regular inspections and ongoing condition assessments. This information helps guide renewal investment to the right place at the right time.

Many of the city’s transport assets are ageing with a number nearing or having exceeded the end of their useful economic lives. When an asset reaches about 75% of its service life, deterioration will accelerate. For example, if a road pavement is left beyond this point without maintenance, the cost to renew the asset could be 4-5 times higher. Maintenance and renewal interventions are interlinked. Timely repairs can extend the time until a reseal is required on a road, resealing at the right time will extend the life of the pavement structure beneath. Routine maintenance deals with defects such as cracks and potholes before more serious problems develop.

In addition, certain renewals are considered as part of the Major Projects Programme, namely the Central City upgrade and the Tertiary Precinct. Both projects require significant transport and 3 water renewals so delivering them together creates efficiency and minimises disruption. Where opportunities exist to combine these types of renewals activities and they are large enough in dollar value, they are delivered through the Major Projects Programme.

Principal options and implications of replacing and renewing ageing infrastructure

The option that the DCC has decided to take is labelled (P1).

Factors such as population growth, the rate and type of economic growth, the rate of growth in dwellings and where future housing developments occur will have an impact on the demand for infrastructure. An important part of good asset management is enabling sustainable growth by undertaking investments that address both service levels and future capacity at the same time, while taking opportunities to rationalise the complexity of networks that have grown over many decades. This can also reduce future repair and maintenance costs.

Population and dwelling growth

The COVID-19 pandemic has created uncertainty around Dunedin’s future growth. Dunedin’s population is projected to be relatively resilient in the near term, despite the impact of COVID-19. Current projections indicate the population will continue to grow sharply until 2033, reaching 141,417. From 2034 onwards, the population rate will begin to taper off returning to a medium growth scenario. By 2038, the 65 years and over demographic will be Dunedin’s second largest age group (behind 25 and under).

Dunedin’s dwelling numbers will experience similar trends to the Dunedin population, experiencing a sharp rate of expansion until 2038 reaching a total of 60,511 dwellings. Projections then indicate that dwelling expansion will slow. This is likely to be a result of an ageing population and the changing make up of families and households.

Variations to the 2GP will define where forecast growth might occur across Dunedin.

Planning for growth in housing and business development

Under the National Policy Statement for Urban Development 2020, Dunedin is categorised as a tier 2 urban environment (the requirements of which are in the table below). This brings into effect a range of provisions relating to the amount of development capacity that is required to be serviceable with infrastructure. 2GP Variation 2 comprises a number of discrete changes that will add additional housing capacity into the 2GP.

National Policy Statement on Urban Development 2020^[2]

Visitor growth

Dunedin’s successful tourism marketing, which attracted large cruise ships and major stadium events, resulted in Dunedin’s ‘peak day’ visitor numbers growing steadily from 2013 to 2018. However, with the impact of COVID-19 on tourism, ‘peak day’ visitor numbers are expected to drop sharply in the short term, with a recovery period between 2023-2028 as tourism markets re-establish. Pre COVID-19 levels of growth are projected by 2031, with peak day visitor numbers reaching 27,886 by 2033.

Economic growth

The COVID-19 pandemic has created uncertainty around Dunedin’s future growth and economic performance. As detailed above, the impact on visitor numbers will have an impact on Dunedin’s tourism economy.

The changing make up and rate of growth in the economy may impact on demand for network infrastructure. For example, Port Otago at Port Chalmers is New Zealand's 5th largest port (by value) and a key link in New Zealand’s international supply chain as a regional hub for the export of high value products including meat, dairy, timber, fish, horticulture and other agriculturally based products. Reduced international demand for export products will reduce heavy vehicle movements accessing the port, which will put less pressure on road pavements and network congestion.

Principal Options and implications for responding to changes in demand for infrastructure

StatsNZ guidance issued in June 2019 recommended the use of the medium-high projections scenario for Dunedin until 2028, and the medium growth scenario from 2028 until 2043. While a pre-COVID single set of projections was developed, reflecting the most probable growth scenario, there is significant uncertainty in any projections. There is a particularly high level of uncertainty for projections over the longer term (e.g. 2028-68).

The option that the DCC has decided to take is labelled (P1).

Footnote

2. https://www.mfe.govt.nz/about-national-policy-statement- urban-development

The 3 waters and transport networks provide important public health and safety benefits to the community and deliver services which can impact on the natural environment.

3 Waters

With 3 waters reform, it is likely capital improvements will be required to meet enhanced protection of drinking water sources, water management practices and new standards for drinking water, wastewater and stormwater services. In anticipation of the reforms and the potential transition into a new entity (if the DCC does not opt out of the Government’s service delivery reform programme), the DCC is undertaking a programme of work to strengthen regulation policies and improve asset ownership, asset management and delivery processes. The DCC is also underway with a project to update drinking water safety plans to better align with the new regulatory system. The DCC will continue with water system planning processes to guide capital investment strategies which will support the continued provision of safe drinking water to serviced communities.

Under the Local Government Act 2002 (LGA), the DCC is required to undertake a Water and Sanitary Services Assessment (WSSA) from time to time. The purpose of the assessment is to assess, from a public health perspective, the adequacy of water and other sanitary services available to communities in terms of five specified factors. The DCC is considering the best way to carry out the next reviews, and it may be most efficient to undertake it as part of system planning.

The Health Act 1956 requires the DCC to comply with the criteria set out in the Drinking Water Standards for New Zealand. The standards set maximum amounts for substances, organisms, contaminants or residues that may be present in drinking water, requires monitoring, and prescribes remedial actions in the event of non-compliance. Drinking water suppliers must also have approved Water Safety Plans for large supplies to identify and manage risk - from the raw water catchment to the treatment plant and within the distribution network - and operate in accordance with those plans.

Resource consents to discharge treated effluent to the environment are held for each of Dunedin’s seven wastewater treatment plants, except for Mosgiel where effluent is transferred to Green Island for ultraviolet disinfection treatment before discharge. Three of the resource consents are due to expire within the next 10 years and so projects are planned to investigate best practicable options for new consents and the impact of anticipated new standards. System planning will address future consent changes and investment plans to address improvements needed.

The DCC currently has six constructed wastewater overflows consented by the ORC. These overflows are designed to manage the public health risk in heavy rainfall events by allowing discharge of diluted wastewater at specific points of the network, rather than in an uncontrolled manner at low points in the network (including into private property). The consented overflows are signposted to alert the public to the potential risk of exposure to diluted wastewater in the event of heavy rainfall. As wastewater assets are renewed and upgraded, these overflows will activate less often with smaller discharges. Under water reform, it is anticipated the quantity and quality of wastewater discharges will also have to meet new standards.

The DCC holds resource consents to discharge stormwater to the coastal marine area. Those consents expire in 2048. Key stormwater discharges are part of the environmental monitoring programme and work is underway to improve the stormwater hydraulic models for key areas. The 3 Waters Group plans to undertake stormwater system planning for all areas in the early years of the plan, starting with a review and improvement of the hydraulic models. Under the current rules of the Regional Plan: Water, most of Dunedin’s stormwater discharges are permitted, subject to certain provisions. The wider implications of water reform mean tighter regulation on quality and quantity of stormwater discharges is likely.

The DCC’s long-held approach has been to enable property owners to build and maintain their own pipes or open watercourse infrastructure. Roughly half the city is serviced by private pipes and streams, many of which are 100+ years old and in poor condition, with confusion over ownership and responsibility. Developing solutions to the complex stormwater problems is often beyond the means of most landowners. Failure of these assets can lead to flooding, sinkholes and landslips. A new approach to dealing with hazards from privately-owned stormwater assets was approved in 2019 (known as the watercourse programme), which aims to reduce these risks on the highest priority sites. Through the programme of work to prepare for reform, 3 waters will review the policy on watercourse asset ownership and the financial impacts of this on the DCC.

Transport

Waka Kotahi’s Road to Zero aims to have a 40% reduction in deaths and serious injuries from 2018 – 2030 and sets out a series of initiatives to address road safety. The city’s accident statistics show limited improvement in Dunedin with the death and serious injury numbers static over recent years. Safety initiatives are developed around our transport infrastructure for both motorists and vulnerable users such as pedestrians and cyclists.

An analysis of crash statistics indicates factors which contribute to Dunedin's safety record are: intersections; young drivers; older drivers; and distractions. Dunedin also has a diverse network ranging from busy urban roads through to quiet rural roads. In some cases, the transition between urban and rural is very abrupt. The central city is also compact and needs to cater for a wide range of user groups, such as cyclists, pedestrians, cars and heavy freight vehicles. State Highway 1 runs through the University of Otago, Otago Polytechnic and the CBD. Improving network safety is a key issue to be addressed through specific safety improvement programmes, major capital projects and in considering safety improvements when undertaking renewal works.

Safety interventions undertaken by the Transport group include:

• upgrading pedestrian facilities
• upgrading major arterials with priority bus routes
• implementing road safety education campaigns to raise awareness of road safety, public transport safety and pedestrian safety
• using fixed safety cameras at intersections and other high-risk areas
• implementing a prioritised programme of safety engineering projects
• providing separated cycling infrastructure.

The ability to be able to move around easily across a variety of modes is linked to health, social and economic benefits. Providing transport choices will have health benefits as more active modes of transport are taken up. A goal of the Integrated Transport Strategy is to increase the percentage of people who walk, cycle, and take public transport to work from 16 percent to 40 percent by 2024. Committing to the goal of increasing active/sustainable transport will also contribute to the city’s environmental commitments of carbon zero 2030, reduce congestion and improve the health of those incorporating physical activity into their daily commute. Investment in providing safe and attractive infrastructure for active modes is expected to increase the desirability of active transport modes.

Principal Options and implications for responding to public health and environmental concerns

The option that the DCC has decided to take is labelled (P1).

Flooding, landslides, drought, catchment fire, rising groundwater and the risk of liquefaction in the event of an earthquake pose the most significant risks to Dunedin’s infrastructure. It is anticipated these risks will increase over time as a result of climate change.

Climate change

Climate change impacts include more extreme rainfall events, causing increased frequency and severity of flood events, while experiencing less rainfall overall can impact on water supply. Dry periods increase the risk of drought and catchment fire (which impacts on drinking water quality). Rising groundwater as a result of sea level rise in low-lying areas is the one of the most significant risks facing Dunedin from climate change. High groundwater can cause problems such as increased frequency of flooding, boggy ground and surface ponding, damage to infrastructure and buildings, and a risk of liquefaction in earthquakes along with associated social wellbeing issues.

Dunedin has significant low-lying areas that are within 0.5m of the current spring high tide mark (estimated at 2,684 Dunedin homes, 116 business and 35km of roads)^[1]. Older people and vulnerable populations find it more challenging to manage the impacts of natural hazards. South Dunedin has an increasingly aged population and one of the lowest decile demographics in the country.

The DCC will respond to climate change by following the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways model that is embedded within the Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance published by the Ministry for the Environment.  DCC is currently focusing on, particularly through the South Dunedin Futures Project, broadening the community’s understanding of the climate change risks that will affect them in the coming decades.   In doing so, DCC want the community to be well informed and engaged in the investment decisions that will be needed to secure a prosperous future for the city.  While many Dunedin communities want to see tangible actions to respond to climate change events, DCC’s current focus is on preparing well rather than rushing and risk maladaptation outcomes.

Because of the complex nature of managing climate change risks, DCC is also developing partnerships with stakeholders to ensure the appropriate expertise is involved to make wise investment decisions for the future.  These partnerships include: regional council, other local authorities, central government agencies including the Ministry for the Environment, the Climate Change Commission, the community, academics, the Infrastructure Commission and professionals such as engineers and lawyers.

Earthquakes

Seismic activity can cause widespread damage to network infrastructure. Destruction of critical built infrastructure and displacement of piped infrastructure can render 3 waters systems inoperable and unable to deliver clean drinking water or to transport and treat wastewater safely. Liquefaction can cause more damage to underground pipes than ground movement and is a significant contributor to pipe failure in earthquakes. Dunedin has several areas with moderate to high likelihood of liquefaction in an earthquake.

Seismic activity could also cause isolation across the transport network if certain areas are cut off due to rubble, slips, liquefaction or land displacement. Dunedin is vulnerable to isolation given the limited number of routes in or out of the city. Dunedin is predominately serviced by a motorway in from the north and a motorway in from the south with the alternative route from the north on Mt Cargill road. Dunedin’s Akatore fault has potential to disrupt the network to the south of the City.

Flooding and landslides

Some parts of Dunedin are susceptible to flooding and landslides during heavy rainfall events. Flooding and landslides can damage homes, business and infrastructure. Flood risks are due to several factors including:

• Rainfall events exceeding design tolerances.
• Limited capacity in parts of the wastewater network as a result of rainwater and groundwater infiltration to the wastewater network from ageing and cracked pipes and inflow to the wastewater network from direct stormwater connections
• Low-lying areas where the groundwater is close to the surface so rainwater cannot drain away.
• Sea level rise, more extreme rainfall events and storm surges increasing the frequency of flood events in the future.
• Mud-tanks can become blocked and creating a flooding hazard
• The low elevation of some roading infrastructure can cause roads to become flooded and cut off.

Manhole surcharging can create a safety hazard in flood events on the Transport corridor when manholes covers become dislodged. Communities in low-lying coastal areas serviced by septic tanks (rather than a reticulated wastewater system) may be at higher risk of groundwater contamination during flood events. More extreme rainfall events and storm surges may lead to larger and more frequent slips and damage to 3 waters and transport infrastructure including sea walls, bridges and culverts.

As weather events become more frequent and severe, the infrastructure networks and community’s ability to recover will continue to be put under increasing pressure.

Drought, higher mean temperatures and catchment fires

Prolonged periods of drought pose a risk to Dunedin’s water supply. Furthermore, drier water catchments yield less water and are more prone to large scale fires. Catchment fires can result in highly turbid water that that is more expensive to treat or is unable to be treated by existing treatment processes. Higher mean temperatures increase the risk of algal blooms within raw water reservoirs, which may require expensive treatment. In addition, odour issues at wastewater treatment sites and within the network are more likely at higher temperatures.

From a transport perspective, higher temperatures can cause degradation in the roading infrastructure. Droughts can also present a fire risk for roadside vegetation.

Building resilience to natural hazards

The DCC has improved its understanding of natural hazards to assist in developing options for a resilient infrastructure network into the future. The DCC are working in partnership with other agencies such as GNS Science and ORC to further enhance our understanding of groundwater and impacts of sea level rise, particularly in South Dunedin.

The Peninsula Connection project is an example of building a more resilient asset by raising the road to allow for predicted sea level rise while widening the transport corridor (for safety purposes) and creating a shared path (for mode choice purposes).

System planning for 3 waters is focussed on an adaptive approach to investment, planning for natural hazards and ensuring resilient solutions are implemented. Long-term investment plans will be ready for the 2024-34 10 year plan, however early work to increase resilience to some water supplies and targeted metro wastewater treatment plant wet weather flow management are budgeted within the 2021-31 capital programme.

Planning is also underway to look at the resilience of the Transport network in the case of a seismic event, specifically around the supply chain and getting goods to and from Dunedin. Planning is also underway for any Alpine Fault activity. In a seismic event involving the Alpine Fault, Dunedin would likely be the least affected so may have to become a recovery hub for the lower South Island.

Principal options and implications for building resilience to natural hazards

The option that the DCC has decided to take is labelled (P1).

The DCC upgrades assets in response to growth or higher service demands. These include improving taste and odour of drinking water and making improvements to roads to improve transport choice and safety.

3 Waters

The highest priority service levels for 3 waters are: water quality and supply reliability, the adequate performance of networks and the impacts of 3 waters discharges and overflows on the environment, plus internal service measures such as health & safety.

The upcoming 3 waters reform will require further improvements to drinking water supplies; such as quality, quantity and management, and require improvements in wastewater and stormwater management. No funding allowance has been made in the 2021 – 31 10 year plan for enhanced standards in water, wastewater or stormwater as at the time of writing these are unknown.

A large part of the work programme within 3 waters in the shorter term is to prepare for anticipated new standards associated with reform. This will include: increased monitoring of assets, assessing internal capability and capacity to undertake the projects proposed in the capital expenditure programme (including the tranche 1 stimulus funding) and improving asset and compliance management practices.

Water

Some capital projects to upgrade water treatment capability have been initiated to improve drinking water aesthetics and taste and provide enhanced monitoring. At the water treatment plants, a programme of work to improve wet weather flow management has begun and additional monitoring has been installed to assist in understanding what investment will be needed to meet any national standards introduced through 3 waters reform.

Wastewater

Ageing pipes and sewers are creating ‘nuisance’ level problems for some residents. The larger issues are caused by inflow and infiltration into the wastewater systems which can lead to surcharge, flooding and hydraulic pressures at the wastewater treatment plants. Renewal programmes on the network are focussed on reducing inflow and infiltration to reduce wet weather overflows and treatment plant wash-out. At pump stations the aim is to increase reliability to maintain network performance and at the treatment plants assets are to be renewed to maintain compliance with resource consents and reduce health and safety risks.

Stormwater

Sea level rise leading to rising groundwater in low-lying parts of Dunedin will make it more difficult to meet current stormwater levels of service. As groundwater rises, additional investment will be required in wastewater and stormwater infrastructure to maintain existing service levels. To support this, the DCC will remain focused on the renewal of assets with new projects to address areas where levels of service issues currently exist. Following previous floods, investment in an expanded stormwater network, in addition to focused improvements in the most heavily affected areas (South Dunedin, Mosgiel), is anticipated.

Transport

The priority service levels for the transport network are:

• Safety – all users of the transport network are catered for in a safe network.
• Resilience – The availability and restoration of the network function when there is a weather or emergency event
• Accessibility – The ease with which people can reach key destinations and the transport networks available to them.
• Travel time reliability – The reliability of travel time on key routes during peak use
• Cost efficiency - The relative costs and efficiency of the network compared with other networks.

There are a number of projects in the 2021 – 31 capital programme, including the Shaping Dunedin Future Transport (SFDT) programme, that aim to respond to levels of service across the city in light of the hospital rebuild and growth in the city, some of which are detailed below.

• Harbour arterial improvements: The harbour arterial route would run along Wharf St and Thomas Burns St to provide an alternative route bypassing the city centre, avoiding the new hospital during and after construction.
• Park and Ride facilities at Mosgiel and Burnside: Parking areas, where people can leave their car and catch a city-bound express bus service.
• Central city parking management: Implementation of a plan to improve the parking experience, wayfinding of parking and a review of the pricing structure of parking.
• Strategic cycleway network: To fill the gaps and expand the existing cycling network across the city to provide a safe and connected cycle network.
• Central City bike hubs: Hubs where cyclists can lock their bikes in sheltered lockers and other facilities, such as repair and charging services, in North Dunedin, Central City and South Dunedin/Oval.
• Bus priority measures and safety improvements: Providing infrastructure to prioritise buses and safety improvements for pedestrians in and around the CBD.

ORC are investing in additional bus hubs and improved public transport and Waka Kotahi is investing in enhancing the state highway, intersections and other cycleways as part of the SDFT programme.

Principal options and implications for increasing or decreasing levels of service

The option that the DCC has decided to take is labelled (P1).

In June 2019, Council declared a climate emergency and brought forward the city’s emissions reduction target by 20 years. The ‘Zero Carbon 2030’ target seeks to achieve city-wide net carbon neutrality (excluding biogenic methane) by 2030. For biogenic methane, the target aligns with central Government, aiming to achieve a 24% to 47% reduction below 2017 levels by 2050, including 10% reduction below 2017 levels by 2030.

Current impact of 3 waters infrastructure on city-wide emissions

3 waters infrastructure impacts on city-wide emissions in a number of ways.

• Biological processes from wastewater treatment were assessed as being responsible for approx. 0.2% of the city’s emissions in 2018/19.
• Some sludge generated in wastewater treatment processes is currently sent to landfill, contributing to solid waste emissions.
• Diesel, LPG and electricity used in distribution, treatment and disposal processes associated with 3 waters networks all contribute to stationary energy sector emissions.
• The availability of servicing in various parts of the city shapes urban form, which in turn impacts on transport sector emissions.
• Construction and maintenance processes associated with the 3 waters network also contribute to the city’s emissions profile.

Historically, carbon emissions have not been a key consideration in the design of 3 waters plant and network infrastructure. As a result, neither existing plant nor network configuration is optimised to minimise emissions. In addition, the current need to prioritise reactive operational expenditure, to address process challenges and compliance risks, hinders significant immediate investment in aligning these facilities and assets with Zero Carbon ambitions. Another key consideration is service delivery reform and increasing treatment standards for water and wastewater - these are very likely to result in more intensive treatment processes, which in turn are likely to drive increases in energy demand. The extent to which these requirements may undermine emissions reduction efforts is currently unknown, but may be significant.

In terms of 3 waters’ impact on urban form, urban intensification (particularly around the CBD, centres and along public transport routes) is preferable to urban expansion, because it is more likely to support and promote low emission transport systems. The DCC’s overall urban form objective of a ‘compact city with resilient townships’ is intended to be achieved through urban consolidation and prioritising use of existing capacity within existing urban areas. Rules in the 2GP currently restrict development in some new medium density areas due to constraints in the 3 waters network, and the degree to which additional intensification is achievable is similarly limited in some locations by 3 waters network capacity.

Current impact of transport infrastructure on city-wide emissions

The transport sector is Dunedin’s most significant, and fastest growing, source of emissions. In 2018/19, transport was assessed as contributing 39% of Dunedin’s total gross emissions, with the largest proportion of this (27% of gross emissions) stemming from land transport. The configuration of the local road network, and the relative levels of service for different modes, shape residents’ travel choices and therefore the city’s emissions profile.

Dunedin has a reliance on cars, which has constrained the uptake of alternative modes of travel. According to the 2018 census data, 68.5% of the community within Otago used private or company vehicles as the means of travelling to work. Global and national trends suggest, however, that with increasing investment in infrastructure to improve the levels of service for alternative modes, there is a slow increase in uptake of these modes. This is reflected in cyclist numbers on monitored routes, and in bus patronage data in Dunedin.

In March 2019, a central city bus hub was established and in 2020 the ORC implemented a cheaper and simpler fare and card system for public transport. Both initiatives appear to have encouraged further uptake of public transport with patronage steadily increasing.

Aligning infrastructure work programmes with the Zero Carbon 2030 target

For both transport and 3 waters, improvements in data quality has been identified as a key step in supporting efforts to reduce emissions.

• In the transport network, investigations into the end use of fuel purchased within Dunedin, and residents’ travel choices, will help the Transport team prioritise and tailor emissions-reducing interventions.
• For the 3 waters network, an emissions baseline for existing plant and network operations needs to be established, to help identify and prioritise opportunities for emissions reduction.

Development of policies, processes and guidance to support the integration of the Zero Carbon 2030 target into infrastructure teams’ planning and day-to-day operations, is underway. This includes revision of the DCC’s existing Carbon Management Policy (2017) for the organisation (which will assist to align all infrastructure projects, including renewals, with emissions reduction ambitions). Clearly defining the outcomes sought to give effect to the Zero Carbon 2030 target will ensure these can be embedded in strategic planning, including 3 waters system planning. It is considered that this will, in turn, clearly align transport and 3 waters expenditure with Zero Carbon ambitions from 2024 onwards.

Looking forward, there is also provision in the 10 year plan to embed Zero Carbon-related considerations in the DCC’s performance management framework, asset management and procurement processes, and reporting.

For transport, the speed and depth of changes required to achieve the Zero Carbon 2030 target represent a very significant departure from business-as-usual. Provision for these alternative modes, and residents’ use of them, will need to increase substantially over the decade to 2030. This will rely not only on DCC investment, but also on the degree to which partner agencies focus their investment on facilitating a rapid transition to a low emission transport system – and the extent to which this is supported by the community. The development of a Zero Carbon Plan for the city, scheduled for 2021, is anticipated to assist with this process.

For both transport and 3 waters, the need to cater for population growth, discussed in section 6.3, is both a challenge and an opportunity in achieving alignment with the Zero Carbon 2030 target. City Development, in consultation with transport and 3 waters, is developing an approach to provide for Dunedin’s growth. Variation 2 is considering additional changes to address the shortfall in medium-term housing capacity.