Future Development Strategy (FDS) for Dunedin

Implementation Plan

Under the NPS-UD, following completion of the FDS the DCC and ORC are required to jointly prepare an implementation plan for the FDS.

The Implementation Plan has been developed based on the actions identified in the FDS. The Implementation Plan describes how the FDS will be implemented over the short (1-3 year), medium (4-10 year) and long (11-30 year) term, based on funding including in DCC’s 2025-2034 9 Year Plan and ORC’s 2024-34 Long Term Plan and related infrastructure strategies. It will enable monitoring of implementation projects and programmes, highlighting where delivery of FDS actions is behind anticipated timeframes or otherwise at risk.

Read the FDS and FDS Implementation Plan

• Future Development Strategy (FDS) for Dunedin 2024-2054
• Future Development Strategy (FDS) for Dunedin – Implementation Plan July 2025

View the FDS Interactive Map

This interactive map is a more detailed version of the maps included in the FDS and allows users to focus on a particular area or specific layers of interest.

The information shown on the map includes development constraints, green and blue networks, housing development capacity, proposed business land changes, and the infrastructure projects and upgrades proposed over the FDS time period.

Note that areas identified within the FDS for future housing intensification or business land use are indicative only and will be subject to more detailed assessment prior to being proposed for rezoning through a future plan change process.

Dunedin Future Development Strategy interactive map (opens in new window)

Frequently Asked Questions

• What is an FDS?

  The purpose of the Future Development Strategy (FDS) is to promote long-term strategic planning by setting out a high-level vision for how Ōtepoti Dunedin will:

  • achieve well-functioning urban environments in its current and future urban areas
  • provide at least sufficient development capacity for housing and business land needs to meet expected demand over the next 30 years
  • help to integrate planning decisions under the RMA with infrastructure planning and funding decisions.

  The FDS is being prepared under the National Policy Statement for Urban Development (NPS-UD), a national policy statement prepared by the Government under the Resource Management Act. It will replace the Spatial Plan for Dunedin, which was prepared in 2012. The Dunedin City Council (DCC) and Otago Regional Council (ORC) have prepared this draft FDS in partnership with mana whenua and with significant input from key contributors including Kāinga Ora and Waka Kotahi.

  Under the NPS-UD the FDS must be developed through the Special Consultative Process in the Local Government Act 2002, which means that the draft FDS is being put out for consultation alongside a Statement of Proposal which summarises the Councils' proposals.

  The FDS will guide future changes to RMA planning documents (such as Dunedin’s District Plan – the 2GP) and other planning decisions that affect the urban environment. It will also influence infrastructure planning and funding decisions made by the DCC and ORC in their long term plans and infrastructure strategies, the Regional Land Transport Plan, and the asset management plan for the future water services provider.

  

  Diagram outlining relationships between legislation/plans

• What must be included in an FDS

  An FDS needs to show:

  • the broad locations for Dunedin’s housing and business land capacity (in existing and any new urban areas) over the long term (30 years)
  • the strategic infrastructure required to support and service that growth, including any corridors or sites required; and
  • development constraints.

  It must also include a clear statement of hapū and iwi values and aspirations for urban development.

• What is the relationship with the DCC and ORC long term plans (LTPs) and infrastructure strategies?

  The draft FDS is being developed concurrently with the DCC and ORC LTPs in an iterative process. Consultation on the draft FDS will run before the consultation on the DCC LTP (also called the ’10 year plan’) and the ORC LTP so that the FDS hearing panel can make recommendations on those documents to support integration. Any FDS submissions that are clearly linked to infrastructure provision/funding decisions in the ORC or DCC LTPs will be summarised and provided to those processes for consideration.

  The timeframes for infrastructure projects identified in the FDS are indicative, and are based on information available at the time the draft FDS was prepared.  Decisions on funding these projects are made through the LTP process and so may be subject to change.

  The process to finalise the FDS allows for alignment of the FDS and LTPs. Following the FDS hearing, the Joint Hearing Panel will prepare a recommendation report on any changes it considers need to be made to the proposed LTPs to align them with the FDS. This report will be considered as part of the DCC and ORC LTP deliberations. The Joint FDS Hearing Panel does not have authority to change the DCC or ORC LTPs or infrastructure strategies. However, the recommendation report will allow the panel’s views on the infrastructure required to support growth and a well-functioning urban environment (as determined through the FDS) to be considered as part of LTP decisions.

  The DCC and ORC will decide on infrastructure funding as part of their LTP processes mid 2024. The Joint FDS Hearing Panel may consider the outcomes from that process before finalising the FDS. This process is summarised below.

  

• How is the FDS being developed?

  To develop this draft FDS, we engaged with neighbouring local government authorities, central government agencies, iwi and hapū, infrastructure providers and the development sector, as required by Part 3.15 of the NPS-UD.

  We prepared the FDS in partnership with Te Rūnaka o Ōtākou and Kāti Huirapa Rūnaka ki Puketeraki through representation at the project governance level, and through professional services consultancy Aukaha at an operational level. We engaged with Waitaki District Council and Clutha District Council as the two territorial authorities most closely connected to Dunedin to identify any relevant cross-boundary issues. Kāinga Ora and Waka Kotahi were key contributors, and we also consulted with the Ministry of Education. We engaged with external providers of other nationally significant infrastructure while preparing draft content to make sure the FDS identifies any infrastructure requirements resulting from growth.

  We also undertook wider public engagement to get a detailed understanding of community views and aspirations for Dunedin’s long-term growth. We ran 12 community workshops across Dunedin in April/May 2023. The workshops were followed up with an online questionnaire for the development and business community.

  For more detail about how the draft FDS was developed and the consultation that informed its development, refer to the FDS Technical Report.

  

• Background to the development of the draft FDS

  Ōtepoti Dunedin developed its first spatial plan in 2012, which focused on setting the strategic direction for Dunedin’s growth and development over the coming 30+ years. At that time we were experiencing slow population growth, with an average growth rate of about 0.12% per year between 1996 and 2006. The 2012 spatial plan’s growth projections were modest, estimating a growth rate of 0.24% per annum between 2006 and 2061.

  The DCC notified a proposed new District Plan in September 2015 (the 2GP), which included additional housing opportunities. Development of the 2GP had started in 2012, when Dunedin’s population growth rate was low and projected to remain low over the life of the 2GP – the housing capacity provided in the 2GP reflected that growth rate.

  In August 2020, the NPS-UD was updated. This set out requirements relating to planning for growth and development in urban environments, including:

  • provision of sufficient development capacity for anticipated growth
  • a regular assessment of housing and business land capacity
  • development of an FDS
  • a requirement to ensure a well-functioning urban environment.

  The DCC initiated a variation to the 2GP (Variation 2) in February 2021 to add significantly more housing capacity, primarily through opportunities for intensification, but also more greenfield land.

  In July 2021, the DCC released its first housing capacity assessment under the 2020 NPS-UD. Based on a medium growth scenario and updated (higher) growth projections, this assessment showed that additional housing capacity was required over the short, medium and long term, but that the changes proposed through Variation 2 would address this shortfall, with only a small deficit in the long term. Since then, further housing capacity has been added through the resolution of appeals on the 2GP.

  As part of the preparation of this draft FDS, we have updated the housing capacity assessment (2023). The scope of the update was focussed on:

  • recent growth and development trends
  • infrastructure servicing
  • projected growth and demand for dwellings
  • supply of development capacity
  • sufficiency of development capacity to meet demand.

  Responding to higher than anticipated population growth rates, mainly due to high national net migration following Covid, the 2023 update uses a high population growth scenario until 2034, and a medium growth scenario rate from 2034 to 2054.

  The 2023 update shows that Dunedin has sufficient development capacity for housing in the short, medium, and long term.

  We assessed business land capacity in July 2022. Based on medium growth projections, Dunedin has sufficient land for office and retail activity over the short, medium and long term, but a shortfall of industrial land over the short term (with sufficient over the medium and long term).

• The FDS provides a strategic framework for future growth and development

  The FDS must achieve well-functioning urban environments in its current and future urban areas.

  Policy 1 of the NPS-UD defines well-functioning urban environments as having the following qualities.

  • They provide a variety of homes that meet Dunedin’s residents’ needs and enable Māori to express their cultural traditions and norms.
  • They provide a variety of sites suitable for local business needs.
  • They have good accessibility for all people between housing, jobs, community services and open spaces, including by public or active transport
  • They support, and limit adverse effects on, the competitive operation of land and development markets.
  • They support reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
  • They are resilient to the current and future effects of climate change.

  However, the characteristics of a well-functioning urban environment in Policy 1 are minimum characteristics focused on the objectives of the NPS-UD. To give effect to other national and regional policy direction under the RMA, well-functioning urban environments include other characteristics we need to consider. They should also:

  • enable the affordable provision of services, amenities and infrastructure, including transport, public transport, and 3 waters infrastructure
  • ensure infrastructure can meet regulatory standards and reduce its impact on the environment and support Dunedin’s Zero Carbon targets
  • maintain highly productive land for primary production for future generations
  • protect or enhance indigenous biodiversity and the mauri of te taiao
  • maintain or enhance water quality, the natural character of the coast, and air quality
  • maintain the natural character of significant landscapes and of the coastal environment
  • limit the risk from natural hazards
  • maintain significant heritage values.

  The draft FDS framework has 12 strategic directions to guide growth and development of the city. These reflect the broad concept of a well-functioning urban environment and the broader strategic intent of the DCC, ORC and mana whenua. They are:

  • Ōtepoti Dunedin has a resilient natural environment, where we protect and enhance te mauri o te taiao, with clean air, healthy land-based ecosystems and thriving indigenous biodiversity
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin protects and prioritises the mauri and health of water bodies, including coastal waters, with mana whenua exercising their role as kaitiaki
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin protects its landscapes, natural features and wāhi tūpuna from harmful development
  • Kāi Tahu mana whenua can occupy and use land within Ōtepoti’s native reserves in accordance with tikaka to provide for their economic, cultural and social wellbeing
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin has a range of quality housing choices that provide a home for everyone
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin supports a diverse, sustainable and thriving urban economy
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin has a thriving rural economy and local food production
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin is a compact and accessible city
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin’s central city is a vibrant, safe, attractive, and compelling destination to live, work, play, visit, learn and invest
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin’s neighbourhoods are attractive and support healthy, connected communities
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin has high-quality, safe, sustainable, efficient infrastructure and supports renewable energy
  • Ōtepoti Dunedin is resilient to the risk from hazards and is prepared for and able to adapt quickly to the effects of climate change

  Section 4 of the draft FDS details our vision for each strategic direction.

• What are the key challenges and priorities for growth and urban development in Dunedin?

  To achieve the proposed strategic directions, the FDS must respond to key challenges and priorities. These are:

  • Ensuring we have enough housing development capacity
  • Reducing our car dependency and encouraging more sustainable transport options
  • Protecting highly productive land
  • Delivering on the vision and intent of mana whenua for urban development in Dunedin
  • Ensuring our 3 waters infrastructure can service growth but also reduce its impact on the environment
  • Building our resilience to natural hazards
  • Protecting and enhancing biodiversity – green and blue networks
  • Ensuring we have enough business land

  Read more about these key challenges and priorities in the Statement of Proposal and draft FDS.

• How will the FDS be implemented? 

  The NPS-UD requires the DCC and ORC to prepare an implementation plan for the FDS. After the FDS is adopted (anticipated mid-2024), the DCC and ORC will jointly prepare an implementation plan in partnership with mana whenua and other key stakeholders. The implementation plan will sit alongside the FDS and be updated annually. We encourage people to submit on ideas they wish to see considered as part of this implementation plan. Ideas for the development of the implementation plan will be considered by staff as part of that project rather than the FDS Joint Hearing Panel, who will only consider submissions on the content of the FDS.

• Other Frequently Asked Questions 

  Will the FDS change zoning of land?

  No, the FDS does not directly change land use rules, but it does identify areas that may be subject to future plan changes to rezone them. Future changes to the 2GP, as well as infrastructure funding decisions, must have regard to the FDS.

  A more detailed assessment will be undertaken before any land is considered for rezoning. Rezoning will only be proposed if it is consistent with 2GP objectives and policies. There is therefore no certainty that land identified in the FDS for future residential or business land use will ultimately be rezoned. Any rezoning also depends on the necessary infrastructure upgrades being in place.

  Have other infrastructure providers been involved?

  Yes, development of the draft FDS included consultation with a number of key infrastructure providers, including the Ministry of Education, health providers, electricity suppliers and telecommunications companies, to help us evaluate options.

  If an infrastructure project is identified in the FDS, does that mean it’s funded?

  No, including an infrastructure project in the FDS does not guarantee funding. Council funding decisions are made through the long-term plan process, which takes place every three years. The National Policy Statement for Urban Development requires that the DCC and ORC consider the FDS when preparing their long-term plans and the regional land transport plan. The regional land transport plan sets out the region’s short to medium-term investment priorities and transport activities proposed for funding over the next three to six years.

  Will the Future Development Strategy affect private plan changes? 

  The Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) allows anyone to seek changes to the district plan (2GP) through a request for a private plan change. Requests for private plan changes enable proposals to be tested through the RMA process and allow applicants to initiate a change without waiting for a plan review.

  Private plan changes must have regard to the FDS.  Policy 2 of the FDS provides policy direction to help guide the assessment of future development options.

  What happens if central government provides updated national direction that conflicts with the draft Future Development Strategy? 

  Planning out to a 30-year timeframe is challenging, however we are still required to produce a FDS under the current legislation.

  The FDS must be reviewed every three years, and a new FDS must be prepared every six years.  This regular update schedule will allow us to respond to changes in national policy direction.

  If an infrastructure project is identified in the draft FDS, does that mean it’s funded? 

  No, inclusion in the draft FDS does not guarantee funding. The NPS-UD requires the DCC and ORC to consider the FDS when preparing their long-term plans (which is where funding decisions are made), and when the regional land transport plan is being developed.  Waka Kotahi (NZ Transport Agency) are also involved in the FDS.

  Where does the draft FDS propose future housing growth? 

  Even though we have enough housing capacity, the draft FDS identifies areas where housing could be intensified.  We are proposing further intensification in areas of the city that are close to public transport, shops and services, and in areas of high demand.  We are also proposing future intensification in key areas identified by Kāinga Ora.

  The draft FDS also identifies infrastructure upgrades to wastewater services in some of Dunedin’s existing medium density areas to allow these areas to developed to their full capacity if required.

  Lastly, Dunedin has a significant amount of existing housing capacity, through a combination of undeveloped greenfield sites (including Residential Transition Zones) and intensification options.

  Why are no new greenfield residential areas identified in the draft FDS? 

  Dunedin has sufficient housing capacity in the short, medium and long term so greenfield options are not needed to meet our capacity requirements. A number of greenfield options were considered during the draft FDS development process. However, the most suitable greenfield sites all had significant infrastructure issues that would need to be resolved before any development could take place.

  Policy 2 of the FDS prioritises intensification options over urban expansion, and in particular intensification in areas close to centres and frequent public transport. Enabling additional greenfield expansion as a first choice would not be consistent with this policy direction.

  I’m an affected landowner – what should I do? 

  Landowners whose land has been identified as a proposed future development area in the draft FDS (either a potential future residential intensification area, industrial area or future business land zone change) have been contacted. We invite landowners to submit on the draft FDS to tell us their thoughts on the proposals in the draft FDS.

  It is important to note, however, that the draft FDS does not change the district plan (2GP) or rezone land.  It indicates the potential for rezoning in the future. Any rezoning would be dependent on a more detailed assessment and will only be proposed if it is consistent with 2GP objectives and policies. Rezoning is also dependent on the necessary infrastructure upgrades being in place.