Snapshot of a great small city | he tirohaka o te tāone

Different age groups/demographics will have different housing needs to be planned for.

Dunedin's total population over time

• Dunedin’s population is estimated as 136,000 in 2024 and is projected to grow to 149,500 in 2054.

Dunedin's age groups over time

• In 2024, 33% of Dunedin’s population is aged 24 and under, compared to 31% of NZ’s population. A 42% increase in Dunedin’s 65 years and over population is projected by 2054. A 4% increase in the 25 – 64 age group is projected by 2054.

Dunedin's ethnicity make up over time

• Dunedin’s population is becoming more diverse, and by 2043 the proportions of Dunedin's population that identify as Māori, Asian or Pacific people are projected to increase by 4%, 6% and 1% respectively.

• Dunedin residents’ top five reasons for increased quality of life: Financial wellbeing, work related, relationships, lifestyle, and health and wellbeing.
• Dunedin’s youth are far more likely to experience mental health issues and feeling isolated.
• Dunedin’s aging population are far more likely to experience stress.

• 83% of residents overall quality of life positively
• 59% of residents were proud of how their city looks and feels
• 76% of residents thought Dunedin is a great place to live.

Highest qualification for Dunedin resident over time

• The number of Dunedin residents with no qualification has declined from 16.4% in 2013 to 13.4% in 2023.  While the percentage for Māori residents has declined from 20% in 2013 to 13.4% in 2023, the overall number of Māori residents without qualification remains similar (1,590).
• The number of Dunedin residents with NCEA level 3 or higher education achievers has increased by 6.3% from 2013 to 2023, with 27.3% of Dunedin residents in full-time study in 2023, more than the NZ average of 20.9%.

Highest qualification for Dunedin Māori over time

Dunedin residents in full time study vs New Zealand

• 27.4% of Dunedin residents were in full-time study in 2018, more than the NZ average of 21.3%.

Dunedin residents rate their general health highly, but Māori residents are less likely to rate their general health as highly as the average residents. There is also a significant drop in health rating for Māori residents (from 63% in 2022 to 71% in 2024).

• 72% of residents rate their general health highly
• 71% of Māori residents  rate their general health highly

Dunedin residents are concerned about racism and discrimination in the city, particularly Māori residents.

• 54% of Dunedin residents consider racism or discrimination is a problem in the city.
• 64% of Māori consider racism or discrimination is a problem in the city.

• Dunedin residents have reported a high level of satisfaction and visitation of key public arts and culture sites in the city (Resident opinion Survey 2023-2024).
• Dunedin has been designated New Zealand’s first UNESCO City of Literature.

Dunedin residents born overseas – country of origin

• Dunedin’s population consists of 2.2% Australian, 5.8% Britain and 1.5% North American born residents compared to NZ’s overall population consisting of 1.7%, 5.3% and 0.9% respectively.
• Dunedin has resettled 920 former refugees since 2016 with a majority coming from Syria, Afghanistan, and Palestine.

Major Religions

• Just over 60% of Dunedin residents now no longer identify with an organised religion (45.9% in 2013 vs  56% in 2018).
• Christianity remains Dunedin’s largest religious identity (27.6% in 2018), however Dunedin is also home to followers of Buddhism (1.2%), Hinduism (1%), Islam (1.2%), Judaism (0.1%) and traditional Māori beliefs (0.3%).

Just over half of Dunedin residents feel accepted and value in their identity. Two third of Dunedin residents can participate, perform, or attend activities or groups that align with their culture.

• 66% of Dunedin residents can participate, perform, or attend activities or groups that align with their culture.
• 74% of Dunedin residents feel accepted and valued in their identity

• Dunedin’s provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was approximately $7.7Bn in the year to September 2024.  Provisional GDP growth was -0.3% for the year ending September 2024 compared with 0.3% regionally and 0.0% nationally.
• Over the last 10-years (2013-23) GDP has grown on average 2.5% compared to an average of 0.9% for the preceding period 2004-2013.
• High value knowledge-based services comprise 29.0% of Dunedin’s economy compared with 27.0% in the national economy.
• As of February 2024, there were 12,942 registered businesses in Dunedin. An increase of 0.9% or 93 businesses over February 2023.

• Unemployment was 4.6% as of September 2024. Compared to the national average of 4.4%.  Employment growth was zero percent (0%) over the year from September 2023. This compared to 1.2% growth nationally over the same period, and 1.7% in the Otago region. In the 10-year period between 2014-23 Dunedin employment has increased by 8,082. Employment over the 10 Year Plan period is shown below.

• Macro-economic pressures will continue to influence the Dunedin economy.

National Context

• The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) notes that inflation is currently at 2.1%, with the   forecast that inflation will remain within the Reserve Bank range of 1-3% through 2025 to 2029.

• Please note:
• Tradeable inflation:  includes exports such as agriculture and fisheries
• Non-Tradeable inflation:  includes construction, real estate, public and government services

• Slower forecast economic growth is expected to reduce labour demand over the next two years with an expectation for unemployment to rise to 5.4% in the June 2025 quarter before reducing to 4.6% by March 2027.

• The Half Yearly Economic Fiscal Updates (HYEFU) notes that interest rates have now peaked and will ease over the next 12-24 months, dropping below 3% by late 2026/early 2027.

• After a period of significant increases, Dunedin’s house values had been in decline (comparing year on year) between June 2022 to September 2023. However, this is now changing with median house values in June 2024 (compared to June 2023) up 3.9% in Dunedin.   This was higher than the New Zealand average of 2.5% for the same period.
• While housing affordability has been a growing issue, the average house value in Dunedin during the June 2024 quarter was $642,631 compared to $923,899 in New Zealand.

• Dunedin’s rent as a percentage of household income has been rising steadily over the last four years.  As at June 2024 (compared to June 2023), people renting spend on average 24.2% of their household income on rent. This was higher than the New Zealand average of 22.1% for the same period.
• The average residential rents (per week), year to June 2024 for Dunedin was $498 compared to the average for New Zealand of $568.

• There is an estimated need of 460 new homes per year to accommodate the city’s estimated growth over 2024-34.
• Over the past five years, there has been an annual average of 483 new homes consented and 387 new homes constructed in Dunedin.

• 11% of Dunedin city’s land (~36,000 hectares) is protected for its conservation value.
• Dunedin has 30 native plants and species that are not found anywhere else in the world.
• Dunedin has 4,000 hectares of open spaces
• The entire Dunedin City area is Wāhi Tupuna (ancestral landscape) as it was used and valued by Mana whenua. Wāhi Tupuna sites include settlements, battle sites, burial places, mahika kai areas and resources, trails and significant landscape features such as peaks.

Dunedin has the world’s only mainland albatross colony

Dunedin is home to some of New Zealand’s major penguin and seal colonies

In 2021, Dunedin was the city with the greatest number of kererū  observed per capita (26.5 per 1000)

Dunedin’s emissions snapshot

• In 2021/22 Dunedin emitted approximately 1.5 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e) , and approximately 0.5 million tCO₂e was sequestered by forests and vegetation.
• With the offset by sequestration, Dunedin’s net emissions for 2021/2022 were just over 1 million tCO₂e.
• Emissions from agriculture and transport are the two largest contributors to Dunedin’s carbon footprint.

Dunedin’s Zero Carbon targets

The DCC has set two overarching targets for Dunedin’s emissions.

• Net zero carbon by 2030 (excluding biogenic methane):

  Net zero carbon means that any greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted into the atmosphere in Dunedin (excluding biogenic methane) are balanced out by the amount of GHG sequestered from the atmosphere.

• Reduce biogenic methane emissions:

  Dunedin’s biogenic methane reduction targets are the same as the central government targets:

  • 10% reduction from 2017 levels by 2030.
  • 24-47% reduction from 2017 levels by 2050.

Tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) is a standard unit to measure quantities of greenhouse gases (GHG). There are many types of GHG, the most well-known type being carbon dioxide (CO2), which other types of GHG are compared against for their quantities to be expressed in a standardised way – tCO2e.

Change in Dunedin’s GHG emissions (excluding biogenic methane)

• Dunedin’s ‘baseline year’ for its net zero target – the year against which progress is measured - is 2018/19. Between 2018/19 and 2021/22, Dunedin’s gross emissions (excluding biogenic methane) decreased by 13%, from 1,011,469 tCO₂e to 883,830 tCO₂e . Transport emissions decreased by 16% over the period, accounting for 75% of this reduction in gross emissions. Drops in on-road, marine, air and rail transport emissions contributed to this reduction. Other key changes included a 12% reduction in emissions from stationary energy due to a reduction in coal consumption and the national electricity grid being more renewable.
• Sequestration increased by 36%, resulting in an overall 40% reduction in the city’s net emissions (excluding biogenic methane).

Change in Dunedin’s biogenic methane emissions

• Biogenic methane in Dunedin originates primarily from livestock and waste breaking down in landfills. Dunedin’s ‘baseline year’ for its biogenic methane target is 2017. Between 2017/18 and 2021/22, Dunedin’s biogenic methane emissions decreased by 7.6%, from 704,931 tCO₂e to 658,669 tCO₂e.
• Improved landfill gas management and reduction in emissions from closed landfills accounted for 65% of this reduction, with changes in livestock numbers accounting for 36%.

Climate Change

• A variety of changes in temperature, rainfall and sea level rise will impact the city and natural environment in different ways that need to be prepared for.
• South Dunedin is a vibrant and diverse community that over 10,000 people call home. It is flat and conveniently located, and home to many businesses, schools and critical infrastructure residents and the wider city relies on. South Dunedin was built on land reclaimed from a coastal wetland. This means that groundwater is already close to the surface and makes it hard for water to drain away when it rains.
• South Dunedin has nearly 2700 homes that lie less than 50cm above the mean spring high tide mark – more than anywhere else in New Zealand – and over 70% are less than half that elevation.
• Almost a third of Dunedin residents worry about climate change.

• By 2090, low lying areas of Dunedin will experience at least 0.5 metres of sea level rise
• By 209, Dunedin will see a 5 to 13 percent increase in yearly rainfall
• 30% of Dunedin residents worry about climate change